[BR-Crater] asteroid now 1-in-25 chance to impact Mars

[Moni Waiblinger]

Happy New Year to ALL,

and may this event be a cause of many meteorites falling to Earth!
Well, one can only wish!  ;-)

With best regards,
Moni

PS. thank you for all you bring to this group Ian!
Very much appreciated!

> Date: Sat, 29 Dec 2007 23:03:21 -0800
> From: ikluft at thunder.sbay.org
> To: br-crater at thunder.net
> Subject: [BR-Crater] asteroid now 1-in-25 chance to impact Mars
> 
> JPL has updated the chance for asteroid 2007 WD5 to impact Mars from
> 1-in-75 to 1-in-25 based on a PhD student's search of archives of
> past observations which refined the estimate of the asteroid's orbit.
> So in other words, it's now *up* to a 4% chance of an impact. It's
> still a long shot, but higher chance than before.
> 
>    "Mars Impact Probability Increases to 4 Percent" (JPL)
>    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news153.html
> 
>    "Chance of asteroid hit on Mars increases" (AP via San Jose Mercury News)
>    http://www.mercurynews.com//ci_7831131
> 
> I expect updates as they make more observations.  According to the news,
> JPL scientist Don Yeomans said it's common for the probablility to increase
> briefly before a new observation mathematically eliminates the chance of
> an impact entirely.  We'll keep watching...
> 
> The JPL release says, "In the unlikely event of an impact, the time would
> be 2008 January 30 at 10:56 UT (2:56 a.m. PST) with an uncertainty of a
> few minutes."
> 
> I ran a sky chart on heavens-above.com for the time.  From around here,
> Mars will be low to the WNW and the last-quarter moon will be low in the
> SE.  I agree with Randall Clague's impression (which he posted on the
> Stratofox Talk list) that an impact may have a chance to be observable.
>    http://www.heavens-above.com/skychart.asp?Y=2008&M=1&D=31&H=2&N=56&Lat=37.4&Lng=-121.8&Loc=SJ&TZ=PST&SL=on&SN=on&BW=0&SZ=500
> 
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