[BR-Crater] Sumerian Event

[Wayne Watson]

Thanks for the information on impact sources, and Kofel story link. Some
years ago I came across a DOS program and data file that had cataloged
impact sites in NV and CA. I have no idea where it is any longer.
Possibly on the predecessor to this computer.

What intrigued me about this story when I first came across it on TV is
how with such old information, requiring lots of interpretation, could
the authors get to a point where they could predict the date of the
impact. In particular, how does one derive their conclusion from using
currently available astronomical software using whatever historic data
they had? It all raised at least one eye brow as I listened to the
program. Nevertheless, the conclusion, true or not, and story were
intriguing.

A few weeks ago I decided to probe further and have the monograph for
one more week on loan locally from a library in Illinois. I'll likely
see if I can get a two week extension. It's not particularly easy
reading. It starts with the tablet and interpreting the cuneiform
writing on it. That's a stumper right away, but I've begun to pick up a
bit on it via the web. Still the intriguing part is how they assembled
support information to get them to the point where they felt they could
get an accurate date. For example, and I haven't read the details yet,
it appears as though the impact sheared off part of a mountain top.
Somehow that supported their ideas.  Deeper though. I'm interested in
how they got to any atmospheric trajectory at all. I'm fairly familiar
with the methods, computational and otherwise, so want to get more
details on what they did.  It's not easy getting a trajectory from one
observer, the Sumerian astronomer who made the tablet. In fact, I want
to contact them about the programs they wrote to work out whatever
trajectory they may have arrived at. Basically, I want to see what the
full story is to how they arrived at their conclusion. The TV program
left a lot open.

The only background on this I've encountered is the TV program, and the
book. One can get a peek at the book on Amazon's "Look Inside".
<http://www.amazon.com/Sumerian-Observation-K%C3%B6fels-Impact-Event/dp/1904623646/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top>
Here's a list from what I've found in the last 12 hours,
<http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-190099342.html>, scroll down 1/2 a
page. Here's one from the Skeptic Society magazine,
<http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/09-02-04>, which is critical of the
monograph.



Ian Kluft wrote:
> On Fri, Oct 23, 2009 at 09:29:41PM -0700, Wayne Watson wrote:
>   
>> I have no idea if this will help in this case, perhaps a stretch, but 
>> it's certainly interesting. There might be some relevance. [...]
>>     
>
> Yeah, it's a stretch for direct relevance to Black Rock.  But there has been
> plenty of discussion related in general to research of impact sites.  Many of
> us are at different points in climbing the difficult learning curve of the
> science of impact crater recognition.  So educational discussion is welcome.
>
> I have a suggestion though - for any story like this, please try to find
> a URL for background info if you have it.  For this one, I found some at
>    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/03/31/kofels_asteroid/
>
> The story is intriguing in that they decoded ancient astronomical observations
> and were able to computer-fit a date to them.  But it doesn't necessarily lead
> to the proponent's conclusion about where the recorded fireball impacted.
> We need to dig further into that.
>
> There are so many impact theories that it's hard to know what to think of
> them.  (That's a lesson not lost on us. As we research Black Rock, we've
> found how demanding the level of proof is.)  When briefing myself on any
> given impact theory, the first place I look is David Rajmon's Impact Database
> at http://impacts.rajmon.cz/ .  He maintains the list for the Impact Field
> Studies Group, a non-profit association of impact specialists.
>
> It says the data on the Kofels theory has had its possibility of an impact
> origin disproven.  Kofels is listed as class 5, "rejected".  It lists numerous
> sources.  So it deflates the story.  I think they shouldn't still be airing a
> documentary about it after that.  Oh well.  That's TV for you.
>
> Black Rock is on Rajmon's list as class 3, "possible", meaning it needs more
> study.  His 2009.2 update now includes our updated data for the 87km circle.
>
>   

-- 
           Wayne Watson (Watson Adventures, Prop., Nevada City, CA)

             (121.015 Deg. W, 39.262 Deg. N) GMT-8 hr std. time)
              Obz Site:  39° 15' 7" N, 121° 2' 32" W, 2700 feet

               1,595. That's the number of people who died in
               car accidents for a year's period after 9/11/2001
               who shouldn't have died. Why? We stopped flying
               because of fear and took up driving. Bad choice.
                   -- The Science of Fear by Daniel Gardner

                    Web Page: <www.speckledwithstars.net/>